The hottest glass market presents an unprecedented

2022-08-07
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The glass market is at an unprecedented low level

since February this year, the current price of glass has been falling all the way. Up to now, the main 1409 contract of glass futures has fallen by nearly 200 points, and the spot price has also fallen by nearly 130 yuan/ton. This has lasted for a long time and has a large decline, which rarely occurred in the market in the same period in the past. Even in the peak season of May with good demand, it has not shown a significant improvement, and the market pessimism has intensified

according to the futures, according to the practice in previous years, after the Spring Festival, the glass industry will be in a seasonal recovery period, and glass manufacturers will also take advantage of the time when the middle and lower reaches stock up to reduce inventory. In particular, the demand from April to May is good, and the seasonal characteristics of gradually rising prices are obvious. However, this year, the glass industry has experienced different twists and turns

"after the Spring Festival this year, affected by the decline of the real estate industry, the demand for glass has also cooled down." Zhangyongge, an analyst at Hongye futures, told us that after the year, the high housing inventory in many places suppressed the rising house prices, and bank credit was also continuously tightened, leading to a wave of price reduction in the real estate market. From the first tier cities to the second and third tier cities, the housing turnover showed a downward trend. The decline of real estate growth rate has hit the market's expectations for the future market to a certain extent

however, the poor demand has not dampened the enthusiasm of glass manufacturers for ignition. So far this year, 8 production lines have been ignited, with a cumulative increase of 5150 tons. "With the gradual fermentation of the supply effect of new production capacity, the oversupply situation in the glass market is becoming more and more serious." Zhangyongge said that the weakness of the current glass market mainly comes from the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand

"the overall trend of the glass market this year is contrary to the seasonal laws of previous years, which surprised the market." The relevant personnel of a glass enterprise in North China told that compared with previous years, the trend of glass spot is much weaker. Although it has entered the peak spot season, the spot price is still falling and still shows no signs of stabilization, which does not prohibit the sharp decline of market confidence

according to the data of China Glass information, as of yesterday, the confidence index of China glass was 998. Hydrogels are similar to extracellular matrix due to their high water content 56 points, which is also the first time that the confidence index has fallen below 1000 points in history. It can be seen that the current sentiment in the glass spot market has fallen to the freezing point

it was learned from the interview that before and after the Dragon Boat Festival, with the launch of a new round of price adjustment in Shahe region, East China, central China and other regions responded quickly and also made synchronous downward adjustments. At present, except for the markets in South China and southwest China, most of the markets in China are in a stalemate or depressed state

according to Lou Zailiang, an analyst of LUZHENG futures, the root cause of the current glass market problem lies in the real estate market. "As long as the real estate market remains in its current state, it is difficult for both glass spot and futures to make a big improvement." Lou Zailiang said that the focus of the future market is still reflected in the real estate policy. "Especially in the first tier cities, if the real estate policy is relaxed, the glass futures price will first stabilize and recover, and then the spot price will gradually recover."

this view has also been recognized by Ma Jingjing, an analyst of Xinhu futures. "In the current environment, it is reasonable for the future and present prices to fall in the same direction. In the short term, with the approaching of the plum rain season in the south, it is difficult to improve the situation of glass price reduction." Ma Jingjing said that to reverse the weak pattern, it is necessary to have the real estate market warming or the glass industry draining water, cold repair and other capacity reduction to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand pattern

Zhonghua glass () Department

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