The hottest glass market may come out of the troug

  • Detail

The glass market may come out of the trough, and enterprises still need to be prepared for danger in times of peace. After six months of deep price decline, the market mentality has changed from pessimism to fear, and then to confidence repair. The glass market in 2014 can be described as twists and turns. Although September, 2014 finally saw the opportunity to "breathe" for the first time in the year, with the general decline of domestic glass prices again in October, the "recovery" of the glass market has become a "mirage"

just when the market was worried that the off-season of the glass market in 2014 would be brought forward and the "winter" of the industry would come earlier, the performance in December made the market feel the "warmth" of a long-term encounter

it is understood that from November to the end of December 2014, glass prices in most parts of the country did not continue to decline, but ushered in a phased recovery. Among them, in Shahe area, the "wind vane" of the market, the spot price of glass rose from 1040 yuan/ton at the end of October to 1080 yuan/ton in mid December. In the same period, the spot price of glass in Wuhan in the central China market also rose from 1160 yuan/ton to 1200 yuan/ton

with the recovery of the spot market, the futures prices also rose steadily. As of December 31, 2014, the glass 1501 contract closed at 1119 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton from 1045 yuan/ton at the beginning of December

at the end of 2014, there was a "warm winter" market in the glass market, which surprised many people in the industry. What happened to the glass market? Is this the signal of "Jedi meeting life" released by the glass industry after "finding the bottom"? Based on this, I followed the research group of Zhengshang Institute and came to the two regions most concerned by the glass Market - Hubei and Shahe, Hebei

during the visit to glass enterprises in Hubei and Shahe, it was obvious that most glass enterprises were not as hard as expected. On the contrary, they showed a good attitude

although there was no "hot" scene, several freight cars were parked orderly outside the gate of Hubei Yijun glass factory, waiting for loading and departure. According to the visual inspection, the delivery of the manufacturer is not bad

according to the inventory situation of the two glass factory warehouses in Hubei Province, it is basically maintained at 10-15 days. The inventory of glass enterprises in Shahe area is only 5-6 days. The existing inventory of glass enterprises in the two regions is relatively low

"glass is produced continuously, and there is overcapacity every year. Even so, all the products are sold. Why?" The relevant person in charge of Hubei Yijun glass factory frankly said that, on the one hand, due to the rigid demand in the market, on the other hand, due to the flexible production and low-cost sales of the manufacturer. "In the current environment, we have adjusted the production, changed the specifications and varieties every five days, with complete boards and low prices. In this way, we can meet the diversified needs of the downstream to maintain the normal operation of the enterprise." In addition, according to the above person in charge, another advantage of the plant is that it has its own transportation team and strong transportation force. "With their own fleet, local customers will be able to make orders the first day and deliver them to their destination the next day." In his opinion, convenient transportation has also brought certain benefits

for the "warm winter" market in the glass market, wangchengbin, head of the futures Department of Wuhan Changli Glass Co., Ltd., believes that this is related to the fine weather in the winter of 2014. "In the winter of 2014, the weather in most parts of China was sunny and warm, suitable for outdoor construction, and the downstream was in a hurry." Wangchengbin said that affected by this, the demand side of glass has been released to a certain extent

in the survey days, the weather in Hubei and Shahe is mostly sunny, with no obvious signs of cooling, "weather" still supports "warm winter"

feel the same "warm winter" and different moods

it is understood that the "warm winter" market is common in the glass market. According to the laws of previous years, although the northern market entered the off-season in November, due to its weather and geographical advantages, the downstream processing plants' rush orders from November to December can still bring some rigid demand to the market, thus forming a small peak season at the end of the year

"the 'warm winter' market is very common, but it is a bit surprising that it occurred in 2013 and 2014 for two consecutive years. The same 'warm winter' market is obviously different." Yangxiaoqiang, an analyst at Changjiang futures, explained that the "warm winter" market in 2013 had a good continuity, and the spot price had been rising since September. In 2014, after the price rise in September, the price fell sharply in October, oscillated in November, and suddenly rose in December

in fact, especially the uneven distribution, in terms of the "warm winter" market of glass, its emergence needs a specific environment as a support. The fundamental reason for the "warm winter" market in 2014 lies in the weak balance between supply and demand, in which the relaxation of real estate policy is a very important factor, which is slightly different from the background in 2013

"due to the increase of environmental protection costs and the increase of glass consumption by deep-processing enterprises, the spot price of glass showed signs of off-season rise in 2013." Jixiaoyun, an analyst at Green Dahua futures, told us that the cost of environmental protection increased by about 60 yuan/ton, and the rapid development of deep processing in various regions also provided some support for the market. However, in 2013, glass manufacturers were worried that the government would introduce relevant policies to control production capacity, so they 3. Standardized equipment and made production line layout in advance, resulting in explosive growth of production capacity. In September, 2014, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued a document proposing that it is strictly prohibited to build new flat glass production capacity projects before the end of 2017. In addition, the shrinkage of the real estate industry has led to the decline of the production line production momentum

the difference between supply and demand in 2013 and 2014 also directly caused the difference in glass inventory level. In September, 2013, the inventory began to rise, and then made rapid progress. It was not until April, 2014 that the inventory growth slowed down slightly. The inflection point of inventory in 2014 also appeared in September, which was roughly the same as that in 2013. However, the inventory growth momentum was only maintained until November, and the growth rate was slow

in addition, the market mentality has also changed. Compared with 2013, 2014 is also a "warm winter", but the industry has calmed down a lot, and not a few are prepared for danger in times of peace

according to chenxiaofei, head of futures Department of China Yaohua Glass Co., Ltd., at the end of 2013, under the background of the good real estate market, manufacturers and traders were generally optimistic. However, facts have proved that they overestimated the market situation in the later stage, and most of the hoarders lost money. At present, enterprises and traders are more cautious and try to maintain their low inventory

"since 2013, after the peak season in October, there has been a small peak in December. The cold winter in the glass market is not 'cold', but 'warm', which is more obvious in 2014." Wuyanmin, manager of futures Department of Hebei Daguang Industrial Group Co., Ltd., said that if the situation in 2013 is followed, the glass market will be very depressed in the first half of 2015

jiaoyonggang, head of the futures Department of Shandong Jinjing Technology Co., Ltd., is also not optimistic about 2015: "at the end of 2013, everyone was generally optimistic about the market in 2014. The 'warm winter' market was considered to be a continuation of the market for the better. However, unlike 2014, prices rebounded after a long period of downturn. Everyone thought that the 'warm winter' market was a sign of price decline and was pessimistic about 2015"

how long can the "warm winter" market, which began at the end of 2014, last? The key to judge the sustainability of this wave of market is whether it has enough "confidence"

in Shahe area, Hebei Province, the "city of glass", I feel the irresistible development of the local deep processing industry. Deep processing industrial parks and science and technology parks have sprung up like mushrooms. In my impression, as early as april2013, the local glass deep processing industry was just emerging, and only the Desheng Glass Industrial Park established by Dejin Glass Co., Ltd. At that time, 23 enterprises, 24 production bases and more than 20 workshops were settled in the industrial park. Now, this upstream and downstream "marriage" approach has developed rapidly in Shahe region. Seeking high added value and producing diversified glass products will show a new trend of composite components manufactured with new adhesives at the IAA commercial vehicle exhibition held in Hanover, Germany on September 22 (2) 9

at present, there are 8 glass deep processing parks in Shahe Economic Development Zone, including Great Wall, Desheng, Xinyu and ZHENGBO, which have incubated and cultivated a number of glass deep processing projects with high scientific and technological content and strong driving force

pangpujun, deputy general manager of Hebei Zhengda Glass Co., Ltd., told that the reason why the glass market in Shahe region did not feel cold in 2014 was due to the weather on the one hand, and the vigorous development of the local deep processing industry on the other

"at present, the transformation and upgrading of Shahe region is accelerating." Pangpujun said that nearly two-thirds of Shahe's original glass was used for deep processing. Moreover, the deeply processed products can be sold all over the country, and even exported to Southeast Asia, Europe and South Africa. "The transformation and upgrading of Shahe is relatively early. The development of deep processing business can not only improve the added value, but also extend the sales channel, expand the sales radius and improve the competitiveness of the coverage." According to pangpujun, this is indeed a necessary choice for the glass industry in the era of meager profits

in Desheng Industrial Park, the person in charge of a mirror making enterprise confirmed to me that many processing enterprises have been newly settled in the park this year, and the local glass deep processing industry is booming

in order to survive in the cruel competition of capacity reduction and capacity optimization, enterprises are lengthening their business chain. Lichenxi, head of the Hankou Business Department of Meierya futures, introduced that in fact, the first demonstration enterprise for the transformation and upgrading of coal coking with a capacity of one million tons in China has been built. In Hubei, Yijun glass plant started its own natural gas project and extended to the upstream of the glass industry chain, while Changli glass plant chose to extend to the downstream, increased its investment in glass deep processing and worked hard to develop Low-E glass

at present, how much does the development of the deep processing industry in the glass market support the "warm winter"? According to pangpujun, the proportion of deep processing depends on the demand, and the end use is in the construction field. Due to the recession of the real estate market, it may have a bottom-up impact on the whole glass industry chain

it is learned that due to the sales model of cash to delivery and dealers, the operating pressure of glass production enterprises in 2014 was relatively small, and the pressure was more concentrated on the end of the industrial chain - tempered glass processing enterprises

"not all glass deep-processing manufacturers have a good life." Wangchengbin frankly said that the decline of terminal real estate sales in 2014 posed a test to the enterprise's payment collection, and the financial pressure of downstream glass processing enterprises was high. "Only those enterprises that do not match the real estate and are mainly trade oriented, sell to wholesalers and then go to retail, their payback is relatively better." Wangchengbin said, "they are very similar to our float glass manufacturers. They generally have the 'money' rule. If you don't give me money, I won't give you goods."

Wu Yanmin agrees with this. "The Shahe region has a tight supply of goods, low inventories and strong prices, but the prices are lower than those in the same period, indicating that the monetary environment is more severe and the funds in the industrial chain are more tense." In his opinion, in the past, money was loose, dealers at all levels were well stocked, and sales began to improve in July and August. Now, there is no money to prepare goods. Only when the new demand comes, can the processing plants and traders

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI