The hottest glass patiently waits for short sellin

2022-07-26
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Before the Spring Festival holiday, the price of glass futures fluctuated sharply, from a high of 1518 yuan/ton on February 8 to 1435 yuan/ton on February 12. For the future, Solvay has 18 production bases and 4 research centers in China. ③ the author focuses on the fundamental analysis and predicts its trend. Weak demand in a long period of time as of December 2017, the year-on-year growth rate of national real estate turnover dropped to 7.7%, and the accumulated completed area of houses also fell to -4.4% year-on-year, while the accumulated newly started area of real estate still reached 7% year-on-year. Under the situation that the newly started area and transaction volume of real estate continue to rise, the completed area of real estate has declined year-on-year, indicating that the completion speed of real estate projects has slowed down. The release of glass demand is close to the completion stage, which leads to the restriction of future glass demand

from the perspective of the glass industry, as of the beginning of February 2018, the actual capacity of the glass industry was 912million heavy containers, a slight decrease of 1.7% compared with 928million heavy containers in the same period in 2017. In the same period, the inventory of glass manufacturers was 32.98 million heavy containers, basically the same as that in the same period in 2017. The output declined slightly and the inventory was basically flat, indicating that the demand did not increase or even contracted. However, the glass market price and production profit increased significantly. At the beginning of 2018, the average price in North China increased by 10.6% compared with the same period in 2017, and that in East China increased by 12.7% compared with the same period in 2017. In Central China, we need to check these two key points for an increase of 16.2% and that in South China increased by 8.6% compared with the same period in 2017; At the beginning of February 2018, the gross profit of coal production lines nationwide reached 42%, an increase of 31.5 percentage points over the same period in 2017. Weak future market demand will wipe out the inflated profits. Shahe spot trading has not been fully started yet

at present, the trading of Hebei Shahe spot market has not been fully started. The manufacturer's inventory is high. It is preliminarily estimated that on February 22, the glass inventory of Shahe manufacturer reached 115000, 29000 higher than the 86000 before and after the Spring Festival holiday in 2017, an increase of 33.7%. As the downstream construction has not been resumed, the inventory of glass manufacturers will continue to accumulate. Although the manufacturer has a high inventory, it is determined to support the price. Since the fourth quarter of 2017, Shahe manufacturers have not reduced the factory price by the end of February 2018, except for occasionally offering short-term preferential benefits to downstream traders. At the beginning of February, 2018, the manufacturer issued the winter storage policy and insured the traders until the end of March. Some manufacturers had a profit of about 50 yuan/ton. This policy stimulated the enthusiasm of some traders to replenish the Treasury

with the approach of returning to work in spring, traders who have not replenished their stock before the Spring Festival will enter the site to replenish their stock. In addition, the inventory of original glass sheets in the terminal processing market is at a lower level, and manufacturers and traders generally expect that the terminal manufacturers will make up the inventory. The rhythm of de stocking by traders is the key. It is a high probability event that the manufacturer's inventory gradually decreases after the downstream resumption of work. It is also a high probability event that the terminal manufacturers successively enter the site to purchase the original films. The operation rhythm of the glass market depends on the de stocking progress of traders

previously, the winter storage of some traders to some extent supported the manufacturers' price support behavior. However, after the resumption of work in spring, if the traders can not quickly clear the inventory of their own winter experimental machines, on the one hand, it will delay their later procurement, which will lead to a further rise in the inventory of glass manufacturers. On the other hand, the price reduction and promotion of traders will also affect the overall sentiment of the market and make the market fall into the dilemma of buying up rather than buying down. At present, the manufacturer's inventory is at a high level. If traders can't inventory quickly, the trend of glass price decline will officially come

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